Risk Disclosure

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Trading is risky. Forex, gold and crypto prices can move fast and unpredictably. Leveraged products such as CFDs and spread bets can lose you money rapidly — a large share of retail accounts lose money trading them — and you can lose more than you expect. Only trade money you can afford to lose.

1. What Precedent's numbers mean

Precedent finds past London sessions whose price path most resembles the current one and shows what happened next in those sessions. A "SETUP" or alert means that, in the historical sample, most of the closest precedents moved in one direction by a meaningful amount. It is a description of history — not a prediction, recommendation or instruction to trade. Past resemblance does not cause future moves, and markets can break any pattern, especially around news, central-bank decisions and unexpected events.

2. Not advice

Precedent provides general information only. It doesn't know your finances, goals, experience or risk tolerance and doesn't assess whether any trade is suitable for you. We are not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to give investment advice. If you need advice, speak to an FCA-authorised adviser.

3. Limits of the alert log and statistics

Results are measured from the price at the moment an alert was generated to its target or invalidation zone, using bar highs and lows from the same data feed.
They exclude spreads, commissions, overnight financing, slippage and the time it takes to act, all of which reduce real-world results. Where a single bar touched both zones, the log counts it as invalidated.
The sample is small and recent. A good or bad run over a few weeks tells you very little about the future.

Strategies page: back-tests and strategy signals

The results on the Strategies page are hypothetical. They are produced by applying fixed rules to historical prices after the event. No money was traded, and hypothetical results have well-known limits: they are built with hindsight and cannot reproduce real execution, liquidity or your own decisions.
Each test deducts a typical spread for the market and counts a bar that touches both stop and target as a loss. It does not include commissions, overnight financing, slippage, wider spreads around news or the daily rollover, or signals you would have missed.
The history is limited (up to about twelve months of 15-minute data and three years of hourly data). A strategy that worked in that period may stop working at any time. Past performance, tested or live, is not a reliable guide to future results.
The "live record" lists signals stored when they were generated and their later outcome, measured on the same price feed from the bar's closing price. Your own entry price and result will differ.
Strategy signals, on the page or sent to Telegram, are the mechanical output of published rules. They are general information, not a personal recommendation to trade, and Precedent never places trades for you.

4. Data and technology risks

Data can be delayed or wrong, alerts can be late or missed, and devices, networks or third-party services (including Telegram) can fail. The free tier's gold chart uses PAX Gold as a proxy, which can differ from spot XAU/USD. Always check prices with your own broker before acting.

5. The demo

The "paper trade" feature uses an imaginary balance for practice. There are no deposits, withdrawals or real money in Precedent, and demo results don't include real trading costs or the emotions of trading real money.

6. Your responsibility

Every trading decision, and its outcome, is yours. By using Precedent you confirm you understand these risks.